1. Data sources
The projection uses a combination of census-based population stocks and official demographic indicators from Statistics Canada.
The model starts from observed population counts in 2021 and then applies age-specific demographic patterns to project how the population may change over time.
2. What the model is trying to do
The model is a cohort-component projection. That means it follows people forward in age, moves them between population groups, subtracts deaths each period, and adds births each period. It is designed to show how a population might evolve if certain immigration and retention assumptions hold over time.
It is not a forecast of what will definitely happen. It is a structured scenario tool that helps compare how different choices about immigrant flows and temporary resident caps could affect future population totals.
3. How the model works
At the start of each five-year step, the tool takes the current population stock and splits it into age and sex groups. It then uses observed demographic patterns to estimate three things:
- Who moves forward in age. People in one age group at the beginning of the period are carried into the next age group at the end of the period.
- How many births occur. Fertility rates are applied to women of childbearing age, and the resulting births are added to the next population stock.
- How many people die. Mortality rates are applied to each age group, and the resulting deaths are subtracted from the next population stock.
- How people enter or remain in the resident population. The model uses transition and retention patterns to represent the movement of people between immigration status groups and the population that remains in the country.
The first five-year period uses fixed status-quo assumptions, while later periods use the user-defined selection rate, immigration target, and temporary resident cap entered in the projection tool. In other words: the model starts with observed patterns and then lets the user test alternative scenarios.
4. Why the model is called a “two-step” model
The tool focuses on a two-step process: temporary residents first enter the system, and then some of them transition into permanent resident status. The model therefore tracks both temporary resident and immigrants stocks, while also keeping the total population consistent with the user-defined cap on temporary residents.
This makes the projection useful for understanding how changes in selection rates, annual immigration targets, and temporary-resident caps affect future population growth.
5. Model assumptions
The model relies on several simplifying assumptions so the tool remains transparent and usable:
- Age-specific fertility, mortality, and transition patterns are held fixed over the projection horizon unless the user changes the scenario inputs.
- The first five-year period uses a fixed status-quo assumption for immigration flows, while later periods follow the user-selected selection rate and annual immigration target.
- Temporary residents are constrained by a cap expressed as a share of the non-temporary population, which keeps the simulation simple and policy-relevant.
- Population groups are represented in broad age-sex categories rather than as individual people.
These assumptions make the model easier to interpret, but they also mean the results should be read as scenario-based estimates rather than precise predictions.
6. Limitations of this model
This tool is useful for exploring relative changes under alternative assumptions, but it has several important limitations:
- It does not model policy changes, economic shocks, housing constraints, or changing migration rules beyond the inputs provided in the interface.
- It uses simplified transition and retention logic, so it may understate or overstate real-world volatility in births, deaths, and migration flows.
- It relies on historical patterns and fixed rates, which may not hold if demographic conditions change substantially over time.
- It is designed for communication and scenario analysis rather than for producing official forecasts or policy advice.
For that reason, the results should be interpreted as a transparent sensitivity tool, not as a definitive statement of future population outcomes.
7. A note on scope and simplification
This model is a simplified version of the model described in this paper:
Monteiro, S., Y. K. Aleghfeli, and D. Ghio. 2026. “Long-Term Impacts of Canada's Two-Step Immigration Selection in Metropolitan Areas.” Population, Space and Place 32: e70238.
It keeps the core logic of a cohort-component, age-structured demographic projection, but it reduces some of the detail used in the full model for clarity, speed, and transparency in the web tool.
