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Vantage: An immigration policy sandbox

Explore how immigration policy choices shape Canada's long-term population outcomes.

How to use this tool

Start by entering the policy assumptions you want to test, then click “Run Projection” to generate the population scenario. Review the chart and table to compare how those assumptions change the long-run population outlook.

Disclaimer: This tool is a simulation for exploring scenarios. Its results do not predict or represent what will actually happen.

  • Selection rate: the share of temporary residents who transition into permanent resident status. Higher values increase the flow into permanent residence; the default is 35%.
  • Immigration target rate: the annual permanent resident target expressed as a share of total population. Higher values raise the number of new permanent residents entering the system; the default is 1.0%.
  • Temporary resident cap: the maximum share of the population that temporary residents may represent. Lowering the cap restricts the size of the temporary resident stock; the default is 5.0%.
  • Projection periods: the number of five-year steps to simulate. The default is 10 periods, which covers 50 years.

Scenario parameters

During Phase 1 (2021–2026), the model uses fixed status-quo assumptions: a 35% selection rate, 449,773 permanent resident admissions, and temporary residents set at 6% of the total population. Phase 2 (2026+) uses the scenario parameters shown below.

Share of permanent residents selected from the pool of temporary residents (e.g., 35%)
Annual permanent resident target as percentage of total population (e.g., 1.0%)
Temporary residents as a percentage of total population (e.g., 5.0%)
Number of 5-year periods (10 = 50 years)

Ready to simulate

Adjust the parameters above and click “Run Projection” to see the chart and table.

Methodology and data sources

The projection is built from census-based population stocks, fertility and migration patterns, and a simplified cohort-component model. For the assumptions, data sources, and plain-language explanation of how the model works, visit the methodology page.